Commenting
that the national economy is now at the three-way crossroads and that the
galloping two-digit GDP growth rate period is over, economists and businessmen
still believe that the current difficult period is the time to restructure businesses
and the national economy.
This was what the participants heard at the
annual 2011 CEO Summit held in HCM City on September 6, by VietNamNet newspaper
in cooperation with Vietnam Report Company.
High
growth rate period over
Speaking before hundreds of leading Vietnamese
businesses, Dr Le Dang Doanh, a well known Vietnamese economist, said that the
economic growth has been slowing down, while the inflation rate has been high
and the local currency has been depreciating. Especially, the VN Index, which
measures the health of the Vietnamese stock market, has also been decreasing
most rapidly in the region.
The targeted economic growth rate in 2012 has
been set up at 6.5 percent, or much lower than the 7.5 percent level set for 2011,
and lower than the targeted level set up for the five-year plan 2011-2015.
“The Vietnamese economy is now at the
three-way crossroads,” Doanh said. “If Vietnam successfully carries out the
restructure and can take full advantage of its natural resources and labor
force, it would see a two-year stabilization period ahead before witnessing a
more stable growth in the next years.”
“However, if it does not take drastic measures
to settle the current problems, it may fall into even bigger difficulties: the
economic development stagnates, and the inflation rate is high as well,” Doanh
said.
Edward Chien, Director of Pricewaterhouse
Coopers Vietnam, pointed out that a paradox exists in the country, that while
the economy grows, the productivity does not increase. High inflation remains
the biggest headache for policy makers now.
Meanwhile, Dr Alan Phan, Chair of Viasa
investment fund, keeps a more optimistic viewpoint about the national economy.
He thinks that though the macro economy is getting worse, this may bring
changes and opportunities as well.
In 2001, the national economy also faced big
challenges. At that time, a lot of Vietnamese businessmen could take full
advantage of the situation to earn money and create their huge assets.
“I feel optimistic now, because the current
difficult period could also be the good time for the businessmen who can grab
their opportunities,” he said.
Seizing
opportunities to survive and develop
Truong Dinh Anh, General Director of FPT (the
Corporation for Financing and Promoting Technologies), said at the forum, that
every cloud has a silver lining. He said that FPT once injected 35 percent of
its capital in non-core business fields. However, in the current big
difficulties, FPT has to rethink its investment strategy and decided to cut
down the non-core investments to 10 percent of total investment capital.
“Focusing on your core business field will
bring strength to you. This is the lesson FPT has drawn,” Anh said.
Dr Alan Phan cited an example which he
believes should be seen as a big success story. No one could imagine before
that Tra Vinh province, one of the poor provinces in Vietnam, can have an
enterprise which makes hi-tech products for export, and earns millions of
dollars a year.
“It is the wise choice of the investment
field, the professional corporate governance skills which helped the
enterprise, owned by Nguyen Nhu Thanh, secure the 12 million dollar investment
from a French investment fund,” Mr Alan Phan said.
When talking about the economic performance in
2012, Doanh believes that this would be the year for stronger reshuffle of the
government. He stressed that it is necessary to immediately carry out the
fiscal and public finance reform and renovate state owned enterprises. It is
unreasonable if state owned enterprises borrow foreign loans, but the Ministry
of Finance has to pay debts.
Thai Thien
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