Japan
needs to establish a more open free trade system and strengthen its
relationship with other economies
JAPAN needs to take a long-term view of the
prospective gains to be had from membership of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
(TPP) instead of 'insisting on short-term benefits' and Japanese business needs
to take a similar long-term view in adapting to the strong yen, says Yasuchika
Hasegawa chairman of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives or Keizai
Doyukai.
Less well known outside of Japan perhaps than
the Federation of Business Organisations (Keidanren), the Keizai Doyukai
nevertheless speaks with the considerable authority of some 1,300 top
executives from 900 leading Japanese corporations that make up its membership.
Membership is individual rather than corporate.
In a recent interview with The Business Times,
Mr Hasegawa also stressed the need for Japan to adapt its business model in the
light of supply-chain interruptions caused by natural disasters in Japan and
elsewhere, and by electric power shortages in Japan.
As president and CEO of Takeda Chemical
Industries and of Takeda Pharmaceutical - both of which are globally active
corporations - Mr Hasegawa has had long and first-hand experience of a range of
issues that affect not only Japan and rest of Asia but also the wider world of
business.
Q: Why are Japanese
businessmen lobbying so hard for Japan to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership
(TPP)?
A: 'Japan developed its own economy through productivity improvement
and strong trade through its international competitive edge,' Mr Hasegawa
responds. 'However, the world is undergoing a massive transformation and the
rules are rapidly changing as the world economy becomes more borderless.'
Furthermore, while the global population
continues to grow (and will continue to do so until around 2080), the world
population is ageing, especially in developed countries, and in this respect
Japan is a global leader. For Japan to realise sustainable economic growth, it
needs to establish a more open free trade system and strengthen its relationship
with other economies, such as emerging market countries, and to show a new
model for ageing countries.
'The Japanese government hopes to realise the
FTAAP (Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific) by 2020, and participation in the
TPP could be the first step to toward this goal. Moreover, if the FTAAP and the
Japan-EU EIA (Economy Integration Agreement) could be realised, that would
cover 80-90 per cent of total Japanese trade, and would become a strong
platform to sustain 2-3 per cent (annual) economic growth in Japan.
'Participation in the TPP gives the Japanese
export industry a strong competitive advantage through the ability to
contribute to rule-making negotiations. Furthermore, it could allow us to send
a strong message within Japan and abroad that Japan is willing to open the
country and establish a disciplined and sophisticated free-trade system.
'Our association supports this strategy and
looks forward to opportunities to cooperate with relevant bodies to realise it.
For example, we anticipate the possibility of Japan building a more competitive
agriculture industry capable of exporting their products by securing a
sufficient transition period until the abolition of tax transfers and taking
appropriate countermeasures.
'For a better strategy for economic
partnership, we may be able to focus on drawing a blueprint for Japan
(covering) 10-20 years while expanding the Japanese free-trade system and
without insisting on short-term benefits.'
Q: What about the
impact of the strong yen on Japanese business, and what would the Keizai
Doyukai like the government to do about it?
A: This is a particular problem, he acknowledges. 'As a result of the
survey about currency rate expectations conducted at the Keizai Doyukai in
December 2011, about 60 per cent of respondents expect a range of 75-80 yen per
dollar as at June 2012, indicating continued challenges for Japanese exports.
'The strong yen works against the Japanese
export industry, while also shifting a large amount of manufacturing capacity
to emerging markets. The Japanese government and the central bank from time to
time intervene with the currency exchange.
'Additional monetary supply could mitigate
risks from sharp exchange rate fluctuations, however, it would not be the best
solution. Rather, the Japanese government should promote deregulation to
transform the mechanisms of existing industry, create new business and create
new jobs outside of the export industry - as the strong yen has caused the loss
of many job opportunities through the off-shoring of manufacturing plants to
other countries.
'In addition, the government is responsible
for strengthening Japan's competitiveness and encouraging foreign direct
investment for internal job creation.
'I believe a strong yen may be a good chance
to globalise many Japanese industries and companies through cross-border
M&A. In addition, private sector currency purchases for M&A deals could
help offset the higher yen, because recently these deals are quite large. In
fact, Japanese companies paid six trillion yen (S$93.5 billion) for
cross-border M&A in 2011.'
Q: Given the
strong yen, how can Japanese business counter competition from South Korea and
elsewhere?
A: 'Korean companies overcame the Asian financial crisis by
thoroughly restructuring and terminating non-profitable businesses, making a
stronger foundation for domestic business, and expanding their businesses
globally. Their success factors are strong leadership of top management and
precise marketing research in countries of operation.
'Now, Japanese companies face six major
challenges, such as a strong yen and higher corporate taxes, however, we have
many advantages and strengths in product development due to numerous advanced
industries that have strong development capability for material and product
components, as well as for advanced technology.
' We can learn how to face tough challenges
from Korean companies, and together with a better free-trade system and new
business creation through innovation in collaborating with government,
bureaucrats, academia and private sector as one Japan, it is possible to
overcome our challenges. This is our best chance to revitalise our competitive
edge in business.
'Asia is now the fastest growing region in the
world, and China, Korea and Japan are major contributors to the region. We
could create a strong partnership with China and Korea to guide further Asian
growth through free-trade and collaboration.'
Q: What about supply-chain
interruptions and power shortages of the kind Japan has experienced over the
past year? How can industry cope with those?
A: 'Supply-chain interruptions and power shortages from the Great
East Japan earthquake and additional supply-chain interruptions from the flood
in Thailand have presented many business challenges. At the same time, they
have caused us to reconsider the risks of over-emphasising the western
efficiency-first management style and strict Japan-origin supply-chain
management, as well as the risks of over-confidence in the face of limited
power supply.
'Every company should regularly share risk
management plans for supply chains with their customers and suppliers, and
should revisit their business models with consideration for Japanese companies'
strengths in customer-orientation, high quality products and manufacturing, in
order to prevent further problems in the future.
'Japan overcame the oil crisis in the 1970s
and established itself as one of the top energy-efficient countries through our
focus on advanced technology. Further development in energy saving and energy
generation technologies could be a great driver for future innovation and
business productivity in Japan.'
Q: What are the
prospects in general for Japan's economy in 2012?
A: 'Japan has had some difficult times in recent years, he said 'but
2012 will clearly be a bounce-back year because of special procurement demand
related to recovery and restoration from the March 11, 2011 Great East Japan
earthquake and Tsunami. The Japanese government has appropriated a sizable
budget focused on revitalising affected regions. Japan's growth rate in the
second half of 2012 might be slightly decreased as demand from special
procurement becomes more moderate.'
One option to restore long term growth in the
Japanese economy, he suggests, 'would be for Japanese corporations to further
contribute to emerging market growth through their technology and expertise and
then bring back the benefits of their efforts to Japan and stimulate domestic
consumption and investment.
However, this requires Japanese companies to
take risks and act boldly to face various challenges.'
Q: And the
global economy?
A: 'The US economy will continue to grow moderately in 2012, and it
will take at least 2-3 years to overcome the European financial crisis,' he
says. 'This continuing wave of negative market drivers has also gradually
affected investment flows to emerging markets. However, the positive momentum
of growth in the emerging markets will remain, and they are still likely to
lead global economic growth.'
Q: Finally, what
about the impact of the eurozone crisis on Japan?
A: 'With the hyper-connectivity of the global economy, a possible collapse
of the euro would have a serious impact on public finance as well as Japanese
business. Japan especially shares the same public finance risk, because it has
an even larger debt-to-GDP - although it is mostly held by domestic
institutional investors and banks. We need to be mindful to improve our public
finance situation. For business, a higher yen against the euro hurts exports
and decreases investment not only to the EU but also to emerging markets, which
in turn could shrink global economic growth as well.'
ANTHONY ROWLEY
TOKYO CORRESPONDENT
The Business Times
Business & Investment Opportunities