Jun 16, 2013

Brunei - Bridging of social, economic gaps will make Asean community a success

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BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN —There is an adorable short animation about the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (Asean) Community on YouTube.









ASEAN Community in 2015 En-sub



Produced by the Asean Public Affairs Office in 2007, it talks about the 10 Asean member-states in bite-sized pieces of information, and what an Asean Community could mean for future generations.

Written with a young audience in mind, the clip centers around a group of children who are taken on a “special adventure” through the member-state countries before arriving at a place called the “Asean Community.”

Complicated

The reality of personifying an Asean Community, however, is obviously far more complicated. Urging 10 countries with unique social, political and economic identities to come together into one cohesive community would also be nothing short of an “adventure,” either.

A lot of work has already taken place in trying to realize this community. Exchanges on all levels of government and non-government organizations happen on a regular basis. Ideas and conversations are often shared, and there is a lot of economic activity going on, one way or another, between the 10 Asean nations.

The truth is, with the clock ticking away, realizing the Asean Community before 2015 might be stretching it.

Some time ago, a member of an Indonesian nongovernment organization whose work focused on developing rural areas, shared his opinion on how the Asean Community was only something that could exist in their leader’s imagination.

100M people no electricity

HE said in Indonesia, out of 60,000 villages, more than 30,000 are without electricity. Most of these people without power often only concern themselves with their day-to-day survival, and have next-to-no room for thought on something as grand as an Asean Community.

Over a hundred million people in the region, approximately one-sixth of the Asean population, are living without electrical power, and it is likely those people are also more concerned about their own troubles, even rightfully so.

Focusing on a broader picture proves to be challenging when there are many loose ends still left untied. It is no secret that all 10 member-states have national issues of their own, some duly attended to while others, though glaringly obvious, are left alone for the sake of order and balance.

This is why the proposal of a regional volunteer corps, that should be established later on in the year, is considered timely. Three initial short-term projects are marked to be carried out in Cambodia, the Philippines and Indonesia, and are aimed at bringing together many young professionals to these countries to make a difference. As one senior government official remarked, “It is a powerful image”—the image of a unified and strengthened Asean that would leave a powerful impression on the lives of people.

And this is the kind of image that communities living throughout Asean need to see: young people, working hand in hand to build bridges, teaching children, educating farmers or helping create local businesses and opportunities whilst outright ignoring the boundaries of ethnicity, race, religion or affiliation of nationality in order to make the quality of life, just generally better.

It is this kind of goodwill and trust that needs to be seeded among communities across Asean, to know that the borders that separate us are merely lines drawn on a map. Such goodwill is usually short in supply, perhaps not just in this region, maybe even throughout the world.

Come to fruition

The regional volunteer corps is a good idea, and the fact that nations are contributing only a small start-up fund ($10,000 per nation) is actually a good thing, because anything beyond that is proof that it is a community that cares, through the contributions of its people.

For this vision to come to fruition, the people in positions of authority, with the necessary means must open their eyes and hearts to those who are in need of help. Ultimately, it boils down to compassion and hope, ideas and willpower, of these individuals that will determine the success of the Asean community of the future.

Koo Jin Shen

The Brunei Times

Business & Investment Opportunities Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.

Vietnam - Vietnamese PM Escapes Censure, Just

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The relief within the Vietnamese Politburo must have been palpable. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, along with another 46 officials escaped censure in the country’s first-ever confidence vote. But the results were hardly a ringing endorsement of their leadership.

Under the three-tier vote, announced last year after a scathing review of Dung’s government by the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), Dung scrapped in after 160 members in the 498-seat National Assembly cast a “low confidence” vote on his performance.

A further 122 votes of “confidence” and 210 votes of “high confidence” were also cast. The remaining members of the National Assembly did not vote. If an official receives two-thirds or more than half of the potential “low confidence” votes for two consecutive years, then he or she could be asked to resign.

Introduction of the annual vote was announced last year after an extended meeting of the all-powerful Central Committee was called amid widespread dissatisfaction with Dung’s performance. The Politburo later accepted collective guilt, but Dung escaped censure.

The confidence vote was widely seen as an attempt to placate public anger over the parlous state of the Vietnamese economy and widespread corruption by making officials more accountable. Last year, Transparency International ranked Vietnam a lowly 123 out of 176, on its corruption index.

The vote of confidence was praised in the official media but slammed by bloggers and pro-democracy advocates who noted that a “no confidence” vote was not an option. Critics asserted that the new measures are a cynical attempt by the CPV to tighten its grip on power in Hanoi, where it has held court since 1954.

Dung was elected as prime minister in 2006 and four years later faced calls for a confidence vote as the economy went into a nose dive. His connections with senior figures from the Asia Commercial Bank, the country’s biggest private-owned bank, and the Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry (Vinashin), which piled up debts of US$4.5 billion, were prominent concerns.

Nevertheless, he was re-elected by the CPV to a second five-year term last July. In in October, Dung was hauled before the Central Committee, where he escaped censure. But the confidence vote was announced soon after.

All 47 officials who faced the vote secured the 50 percent support needed to avoid possible future disciplinary action. National Assembly Vice Chairwoman Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan fared well, picking up 372 "high confidence” votes, while President Truong Tan Sang also did well, outperforming Dung with 330 "high confidence" votes.

These results will likely fuel further speculation of a widening factional split within the CPV.

However, the mood over at the State Bank was probably a bit more somber after Governor Nguyen Van Binh notched-up the worst performance, registering 209 “low confidence” votes. His position will no doubt come under more intense scrutiny.

Luke Hunt



Business & Investment Opportunities Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.

Thailand - German envoy hopeful of Thai-EU FTA by 2015

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Rolf Schulze, the German ambassador to Thailand, is upbeat about the prospects of the Thailand-European Union Free Trade Agreement (FTA), whose first round of negotiations started late last month in Brussels.

“Last year Thailand and Germany celebrated the 150th anniversary of diplomatic relations. Within the European Union, Germany is by far Thailand’s most important trading partner,” Schulze said.

“In 2012 bilateral trade amounted to $10 billion or about Bt325 billion—an aggregate of the UK’s and France’s together, representing an annual growth rate of 5 percent to 6 percent.

“Thailand had a slight surplus exporting automotive parts, [information technology] parts, agricultural and aquatic products, garments and footwear to Germany. Likewise, we exported automobiles, chemicals, machinery, IT products, electronics, kitchen and other equipment.

“In terms of investment, German firms are here and invest in factories for luxury cars such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW, chemicals such as BASF and Bayer and a whole range of SMEs [small and medium-sized enterprises]. Altogether, 600 German firms are in Thailand and foreign direct investment amounted to around €1 billion in 2012.

“In the service sector such as tourism, last year, 700,000 Germans visited Thailand, a very attractive holiday destination, and after having been here for two years I understand why it’s so. In addition, 30,000 Germans are permanent residents who have migrated to Thailand.

“Besides tourism, German firm DHL is a major player in the logistic sector, employing 16,000 in Thailand, making it one of the country’s biggest employers. We are also strong in law firms, insurance and banks and other professional services such as Allianz, Deustche Bank and Commerzbank.

“Last July Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra paid a state visit to Germany and extended an invitation for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to visit Thailand. In September this year, we will have a general election in Germany and my impression is that there is a window of opportunity to visit Thailand after the election.

“On the Thai-European Union FTA negotiations, the first round of talks took place in Brussels late last month. Germany has been a driving force behind the negotiations. We have convinced our European and Thai friends of the benefits of this FTA.

“We hope the negotiations will be carried out on an equal footing and a win-win situation for with added values for both parties. We want a comprehensive agreement covering the whole varieties of bilateral trade relations.

“Let’s be ambitious that the FTA talks will be concluded in 2015 when the Asean Economic Community [AEC] will be effective. If both parties work hard, we can achieve [an agreement], and we see Thailand as an attractive market with a robust economy. German firms want to be part of this success as well as in the greater framework of the AEC in 2015.

“The FTA will lower or abolish the import tariffs so products [moving] into Thailand or out of Thailand will be cheaper. Thailand already has FTAs with many countries, such as Japan, Korea and India. European companies have found it difficult to compete with these countries in an equal scenario, so an FTA with Thailand is important.”

Against the backdrop of slow movement in the World Trade Organization in liberalising global trade, “we must be realistic that FTAs must be in our toolbox in boosting our competitiveness.”

“Meanwhile, Thailand is no longer a developing country but a higher-medium-income country about to join the ranks of developed nations. Concerning the EU, we give preferential tariffs to developing countries including Thailand; this will probably end in 2015 due to the country’s changing status as reported by the World Bank.

“So it’s also in Thailand’s interest to negotiate the FTA with the EU to maintain its competitiveness in exporting to the EU. When bilateral trade is boosted by the FTA, more investment will follow, especially in view of Thailand’s good infrastructure and highly developed landscape for foreign direct investment. “The FTA will further boost European capital into Thailand.

“On the euro-zone economic crisis, I can reassure Thai business leaders that there is no need to worry and you can count on the euro. There is no euro-zone crisis [as such] but a sovereign debt crisis of a few countries of the 17-country euro zone.

“The sovereign debt crisis is that these few countries have financial problems as they could no longer manage their deficits. It’s not the single currency crisis. The euro remains a strong currency, while the 27-country European Union as a whole is not in a crisis either.”



Business & Investment Opportunities Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.

China - China has its problems but should not be written off

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The demographic differences are still relevant but the market may now be overpricing the growth of Asean and taking too gloomy a view of investing in China, meaning opportunities for those of a patient investing disposition.

Last year, China’s growth seemed to be slowing and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries were offering better prospects.

It is 10 years since I first visited China with a view to investment. At my previous firm I participated in the early flotations of large financial companies: Bank of Communications, PICC, Bank of China, ICBC.

International investors fell into opposing camps at the time. Broadly speaking, they have remained entrenched ever since.

The state had taken over large chunks of bad loans, arguing they were for social projects and had injected fresh capital into the banks ahead of flotation. Some believed these bad loans had just come from bad lending disciplines.

Two views became established: one that believes nothing and waits for the apocalypse and the other that applies normal investment criteria, with appropriate adjustments applicable to any emerging market.

Investing in China remains challenging but profitable.

The Shanghai market fell as much as most other global markets in 2008. This was due to overexuberant ratings in 2007: banks on 5x book etc.

It is a shame that the fall from ‘bubble valuations’ eliminated the diversification benefit that investing in this economy should have brought that year. Looking at the price to book ratio of Bank of Communication during the past 10 years, the smart investor would have bought at IPO and sold in 2007 when it reached 4.5x. Today that ratio is close to 1x.

Those waiting for the apocalypse overlooked this inconvenient evidence of resilience and pointed at the housing market as a time bomb. China has indeed seen speculative development funded by off-balance sheet funding. Those who have spent time in Hong Kong are generally aware that the Chinese like a punt; and if there isn’t a horse running, property will do.

The authorities’ clampdown on speculation seems well advised and there should be more tales of speculative property schemes delivering losses in the pipeline. If the US Fed had acted similarly in 2006, perhaps a lot of the subsequent mess would have been avoided.

There is also a lack of confidence in China’s official statistics and financial reporting. Having anticipated the more modest GDP growth last year, the numbers that came through were not too upsetting.

Alternative measures of economic activity, such as electricity usage, acted as a good leading indicator. Emerging market investing is often aided by such data.

China is huge and gathering national data is not easy. It must be remembered that UK national statistics are often revised dramatically in the year after publication – and our country is the size of one of China’s smaller provinces.

The largest accounting and governance issues seem to have been with entrepreneurial businesses, often quoted on overseas stock exchanges. In these cases shareholders do not own the Chinese firm but merely have rights over its economic rent.State-owned enterprises generally have provided enough data for us to do our diligence and while the banks use local definitions of what is or is not a nonperforming loan, the trend data we observe seems to have fitted the facts over time.

Such structures are unusually open to abuse and so we have preferred to miss out rather than take the governance risk. Many US-based investors have taken the opposite view and avoid investing in the state-owned entities and Hong Kong-listed stocks we prefer.

I would go further and claim that Beijing has behaved rather well as a shareholder. When China Unicom and China Netcom merged, Beijing did not vote its majority stakes in both companies, preferring that minority shareholders vote through the terms.

I cannot think of an equivalent example when a western government owns a stake: do any EADS shareholders think their vote would count?

All this said, there are issues that should not be ignored. Capital does not move freely in China and the economy is prone to areas of oversupply and scarcity.

Meeting growth in demand for electricity alongside increased car ownership has led to appalling pollution, especially in Beijing. The ageing population combined with the one-child policy gives the country a rapidly rising dependency ratio. Eliminating corruption has been prioritised by the new politbureau.

But measuring and comparing this issue with other countries, including developed ones, is no easy matter. We shake our heads at territorial disputes with neighbours but try not to take sides. However, the economy is still growing rapidly, if only around 7 per cent rather than 10 per cent, and inflation is currently subdued.

Our approach has been to invest as if China were a fairly developed country. The country’s success in raising GDP per head over the past decade has reduced China’s attractiveness as a cheap place to offshore lower value manufacturing.

Looking at specific stocks, China Mobile, with nearly 800 million subscribers, should see much higher revenues as they start using smartphones for internet access, inside the Chinese firewall, rather than just for voice calls.

We recently invested in China’s biggest jewellery chain, Chow Tai Fook, and hold a Singapore-listed Reit, CapitaMalls Asia, which owns shopping malls above railway stations in Chinese suburbs.

For the more cautious, we recently returned to Hutchison Whampoa as an investment. Li Ka Shing has moderated the risks in his holding company after it over-invested in European mobile phones (Three mobile in the UK) in the TMT years. The company has also cut its exposure to ports through a Singapore flotation.

The biggest assets now are a global utilities business, Cheung Kong Infrastructure, which snapped up Northumbrian Water and Southern Electricity after the banking crisis, and Asia’s biggest chain of beauticians and pharmacies. With a wealthy ageing population this seems a fine investment for the future.

As Hutchison is an unfashionable conglomerate it trades at a discount of more than 25 per cent to the sum of its parts. More conventionally, it trades on 14x earnings and yields about 2.5 per cent. This seems a high-quality investment giving long-term exposure to this large and still fast-growing economy.

Overall, our fund’s exposure to China has risen to 6 per cent of assets, using some of our profits from last year’s investments in the Philippines and Laos. Clearly, this is not a large exposure compared with our exposure to the US or Japan.

Simon Edelsten



Business & Investment Opportunities Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.

Indonesia - Strong ASEAN-Japan ties important to global stability

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Partnership between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Japan must be enhanced far beyond economic means in anticipation of the ASEAN Community, set to be effective in 2015, when the region is expected to play a more determinant role in global security, say analysts.

“Over the last three decades, ASEAN-Japan cooperation has been driven primarily by economic cooperation. It now should go beyond that to become more comprehensive,” Rizal Sukma, the executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told a seminar on Tuesday.

According to Rizal, ASEAN’s unity was strategic in the context of ASEAN-Japan cooperation as well as for the international community. “ASEAN’s unity is needed to sustain its centrality in the common effort to maintain rule-based order in the region,” he said.

Some areas should be given priority, both by ASEAN and the Japanese government in the next 15 years, such as democracy and human rights; maritime security; defense; and peacekeeping.

Yoshihide Soeya of Japan’s Keio University, another presenter at the seminar, shared Rizal’s view. “From Japan’s point of view, ASEAN’s solidarity has been increasingly important. Previously, Japan was an outsider to Southeast Asia but today we are an insider. Japan is economically part of [the region] although politically not quite yet,” he said.

Carolina Hernandez of the University of the Philippines and Institute for Strategic and Development Studies (ISDS), Philippines, said that security and stability in the ASEAN-Japan context must not be understood only in terms of defense and military.

“The way ASEAN and Japan understand the meaning of security should be more comprehensive, such as through political forums, diplomatic and cultural events, as well as environmental cooperation,” she said.

Yoshihide shunned questions from seminar participants about whether Japan’s intention in bolstering relations with ASEAN also included geo-political goals such as countering central powers of China and the US.

Japan and China have a long and complicated relationship history. In recent times, the two countries have been involved in a series of tensions related to the maritime dispute in the East China Sea.

Many have seen that good cooperation with ASEAN is very strategic for Japan, not only because of the two’s geographical location, which puts China in between, but also because some ASEAN member states have territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea.

“We are not doing [ASEAN-Japan partnership] because of China or the US. We are doing this for ourselves, to strengthen our region,” Yoshihide said.

The seminar on ASEAN-Japan Strategic Partnership in Southeast Asia and Regional Community Building was organized by the CSIS and the Japan Center for International Exchange (JCIE), supported by the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF).

The seminar was part of the CSIS-JCIE’s two-year project, launched in 2012 and aimed at studying the role and contributions of ASEAN-Japan Partnership in promoting regional community-building in Southeast Asia and East Asia as well as in contributing to global governance. The goal of the project is to encourage efforts to achieve greater ASEAN integration with an eye toward 2015, as well as to identify a vision for the ASEAN-Japan relationship from 2015 to 2030.

The project, which has also been supported by the Foreign Ministry’s directorate general for ASEAN Cooperation, is supervised by Jusuf Wanandi, one of CSIS’ co-founders who is now also the vice chairman of the organization’s board of trustees; and Hitoshi Tanaka, the chairman for international strategy at the Japan Research Institute.

“ASEAN is fundamental to the stability and peace in the context of East Asia and the world,” said Rizal, who was also one of the project’s coordinators.

Bagus BT Saragih



Business & Investment Opportunities Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.

Myanmar - Not in my back yard: China and the new scramble for Burma

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The diplomatic bonhomie of last week’s World Economic Forum in East Asia, held in Burma’s new capital, Naypyitaw, could not hide the reality that there is a new international scramble for Burma.

The country’s reform has sparked a diplomatic feeding frenzy as Western, Pacific and Asian governments vie for position and influence. But for China, is this a case of NIMBY – “not in my back yard?”

Burma is fiercely and rightly protective of its independence and sovereignty. The new competition offers a new means of leveraging economic gains and political benefits from the international competition, including China.

The competition is potentially sharpest within Asia. Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s recent visit to Burma – the first by a Japanese political leader in well over three decades – shone a spotlight on the challenges it poses for China in its own “backyard”. Premier Abe is far from being alone in courting Burma since it embarked on political reform after nearly 50 years of military rule – most notably, Barack Obama made advances in November last year. Tokyo’s new move, however, may resonate more strongly in Beijing than in other capitals.



Why? The answer lies in an agreement for increased bilateral economic, political and strategic cooperation – including a closer dialogue on security and regional issues – as well as the promotion of co-operation and exchange between their defence authorities. Japan wants a slice of the economic action, and Abe’s visit, as a Japan Times commentator put it, could “counter China’s strong influence in the country”. Beijing is not about to be pushed out.

No friends like old friends

Politically, China has been a powerful friend to Burma through the years, protecting it in the United Nations. China’s elite had close relations with Burmese military and there is also a sizable Chinese-Burmese community. Now, though, Burma is open to all-comers, which leaves China as one player among many. Beijing only seemed to wake up to this belatedly with a high-level delegation last year, concluding its own bilateral agreement to strengthen relations; Burma’s president, Thein Sein, assured China’s then vice-president Xi that Burma’s China policy had not altered.

Burma is also politically important to China for the potential of added regional influence. Next year, Burma takes over the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and will host its summit. ASEAN has its own economic community coming to fruition and overlaps with China’s ASEAN-China Free Trade Area.

Burma is, it would seem, in transition and could form a soft political underbelly for China. This feeds arguments in China that the West is building a new “containment” ring around China, with Burma as Obama’s “pivot” and Japan as its willing helper. Nationalistic sentiment picked up on this in the latest round of the Sino-Japanese spat over disputed ownership of islands in April and May.

China as backyard bully?

This is a particularly thorny problem for China as it tries to avoid claims of demonstrating colonialist tendencies of its own. Public protests over China’s copper mining and energy pipelines amid accusations of land grabs, environmental disregard and displacement of peoples – some of whom were brutally suppressed by Burmese forces – only help to fuel anti-Chinese feeling. This will not be an easy furrow for Beijing to plough and is probably beyond its people-to-people cultural diplomacy to overcome.



Economically, the World Bank expects Burma to grow by more than 6% this year. China is already Burma’s top economic partner, accounting for a third of Burma’s trade and, with a shift to a manufacturing and service economy taking place and rising labour costs in China, Burma is set to become even more attractive to Chinese investors.

Already, Chinese investment tops US$8 billion, far outstripping Japan. Burma remains a vital strategic economic interest for Beijing with its large stakes in the mining, oil and gas sectors – in spite of claims of a black economy in illegal logging and narcotics across the border into China.

And Burma is strategically sensitive – neo-containment or not. China imports growing amounts of oil and gas from the Middle East and Burma offers China an important friend along critical supply routes. China has US$2.5 billion worth of new oil and gas lines pipelines through Burma – and while these represent key strategic assets for Beijing, the projects are nevertheless mired in controversy and local protest. For example, Burma’s Rakhine State, where the pipeline begins, has seen severe inter-communal violence.

How to make a bomb in Burma

Arms embargoes will be the last to go. China was a vital supporter during sanctions. The Burmese military again took a massive 21% of last month’s national budget and it is allowed to sell Burma’s resources such as oil and gas to buy arms. China may feel well placed to meet Burma’s needs, but the competition may be too much for Chinese manufacturers.

There are nuclear proliferation concerns too. Burma’s military junta set up a nuclear energy programme – allegedly with North Korean help – raising safety issues and questions around the facility’s “weaponisation”. China, already with one nuclear headache on its borders, does not need a second one on its southern flank.

Has all this any relevance to the UK? There are obvious historical and emotional ties, with British governments having stood against military rule, maintained sanctions, supported human rights and continued to fund development assistance projects, today to the tune of around £43m. The UK, like other states, has an eye for an economic opportunity. Britain used to be Burma’s largest foreign direct investor. Consequently, we see trade and investment minister Lord Green launching a British Business Group in Burma. The government has security interests too – the chief of the UK Defence Staff, Sir David Richards, recently visited the sovereign state.

China’s interests in Burma are clear, but its influence will become less easy to exercise in a more crowded field; trade-offs between its priorities will be more frequent, complex and problematic and requiring careful political judgement. But it will depend on the reform process in Burma and, more disturbingly for the new Beijing leadership, also in China. Burma could prove a litmus test for China’s relations with South-east Asia and the wider East Asian region, including Japan. NIMBYism is simply not an option any more.

Neil Renwick



Business & Investment Opportunities Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.

Philippines - On sustaining growth, poor infrastructure

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Can the Philippines sustain strong growth while underspending in public infrastructure? Impossible.

Rated as having the poorest, or at least second poorest, state of public infrastructure in the ASEAN-5 region, the Philippines has to spend more than half a trillion pesos annually for public infrastructure in the next few years.

The Philippine public infrastructure -- airports, seaports, highways, power plants, water systems, irrigation facilities, school buildings, and so on -- is bursting at the seams. It has failed to cope with the rapidly growing population, increasing urbanization, and rising demand for public services brought about partly by rising incomes of families of overseas Filipino workers.

Metro Manila urban dwellers have to deal with this brutal reality on a daily basis. Commuters are caught in massive traffic gridlock as they travel from their homes to their places of work and back. In the meantime, the number of new cars, both legitimately purchased and smuggled, kept on multiplying. Yet, the stock of urban roads remained the same.

As the President and the Executive Department analyze to death the situation in search of a permanent solution, one gets the feeling that things are going to get worse before they get better.

Yes, the country has achieved investment grade status. Yet, the flow of foreign direct investments (FDIs) has remained low and spotty. In fact, FDI inflows fell in March 2013 compared to March last year.

The inconvenient truth is that the Philippines has remained uncompetitive with the rest of its ASEAN-5 peers.

For one, the Philippines’ state of public infrastructure has been rated the poorest or if not second to the poorest. It has lagged behind Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and, occasionally, Vietnam, in terms of the quality of its road network, airports, sea ports, and power supply.

I’ve done a lot of traveling lately, and I’ve experienced the poor state of public infrastructure first hand. In Mindanao, the dwindling power supply has sapped its economic dynamism. Inadequate and uncertain power supply is the island’s most serious problem. One can’t have rapid economic growth without sufficient and reliable power supply, and to think that Mindanao accounts for about 40% of total national agricultural output.

Sadly, Mindanao has yet to recover from the killer typhoon Pablo which devastated a large part of the region in early December of 2012. Climate change has altered the future of Mindanao. Before, the island had been immune from harsh weather disturbances. Lately, it has been visited by harsh typhoons which led to severe floods in urban and rural communities.

On a national scale, the government’s energy development plan suggests that about 600 MW of new power supply capacity is needed to support the 6% to 7% growth target. But what’s the government doing about this?

The air transport system is in an epic mess. The airport facilities are inadequate. Let’s start with the nation’s premier airport -- the Ninoy Aquino International Airport(NAIA) Terminal One. It’s crowded, its comfort rooms are poorly maintained, and its air-conditioning system is down most of the time. Not surprisingly, it’s been rated as one of the worst airports in the world.

The failure to resolve the legal disputes associated with NAIA 3, after four presidents, is a monumental case of bureaucratic inefficiency. As far as foreign investors are concerned, NAIA-3 is the symbol of what’s wrong in this country.

After three years in office, President Aquino should have a clear and feasible plan on what to do with the three unconnected airports in Manila and the one in Clark. If such a plan exists, it would help if an official announcement from the Palace can be made as soon as possible.

The deteriorating state of airports is not limited to Metro Manila. This is partly because of the increasing air traffic and the government’s failure to meet the increasing demand for airport facilities.

What new airport has the Aquino administration initiated and completed? The Iloilo International Airport was initiated by Mr. Estrada (one of those funded under the Obuchi Plan), but was completed under Mrs. Arroyo’s watch. The Laguindingan International Airport in Cagayan de Oro was also initiated by Mr. Estrada under the Obuchi Plan, was completed recently, but has yet to open.

The increase in air traffic is not hard to explain. Traveling by air has become less expensive compared to traveling by sea. The growing unattractiveness of sea versus air travel is due to the weak regulatory framework and the non-competitive characteristic of the sea transport industry. For example, a ferry ride from Cebu to Bohol is more expensive that a budget air fare from Cebu to Manila.

Except for a few ports, the state of port facilities has worsened.

In the meantime, the demand for air travel has grown with the rising population and increasing wealth of many Filipinos, partly due to the rising OFW remittances.

The government has failed to keep up with the rising demand for air transport. This has resulted in delayed and worst, cancelled, trips. The air commuters are mad. They have the right to ask what is the government doing to improve air transport facilities. And they also have the right to ask: Where have all the airport fees gone?

All these suggest that the government has to invest more heavily in public infrastructure -- not only to make up for past neglect but to build for the future. The best time, and relatively less expensive way, to build is when the right-of-way (ROW) acquisition is cheap; the worst time is when houses, businesses, and permanent structures have already been established along the ROW properties.

In this sense, I wonder why C-6, the proposed highway that passes through the fringes of Laguna de Bay, and which links the South to the North without going through EDSA and C-5, has yet to be started? By the way, C-5 which was planned during the Marcos years, was prematurely opened during the final days of the Ramos regime, yet to date has remained unfinished.

After two years of underspending for public infrastructure, the Aquino administration has set aside some 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for public capital formation in 2013. That’s a pittance.

If President Aquino is serious in achieving strong, sustainable and inclusive growth, he has to spend more for public infrastructure now. No doubt, the incremental spending for public infrastructure will increase the deficit-to-GDP ratio by one percentage point. But not to worry -- it is money well spent not only for the present but also for the future.

Benjamin Diokno



Business & Investment Opportunities Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.

Australia - Asian market ripe for industry's export future

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I come from the North-West coast of Tasmania. Agriculture and, particularly vegetable production, is an industry I can’t escape.

Everybody there knows where to find me, where I live, and I’ve had a long association with the industry over a period of time.

I was Parliamentary Secretary for Agriculture in 2005 when the tractors came from Tasmania to Canberra when McDonalds changed their potato contracts with Simplot.

The farmers and I spent hours sitting in my office, chewing over that conversation, deciding where we might go, what we might do and what the options for the industry were.

I’ve maintained that interest over a long period of time.

So, in 2010, I drafted the terms of reference for  the select committee on food processing and then chaired that committee and the report for that was brought down in August last year.

And I’ve also participated in workshops, particularly in Tasmania, around the development of the Food Plan.

There seems to be a confluence of events that are occurring around food and food supply at the moment following on from the food processing inquiry that we did and also the Blueprint for Agriculture the National Farmers Federation is putting together.

And just recently I commissioned an intern in my office to do a project on supply chains and exporting vegetables into China.

The issues we’ve just heard from Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) are important - the research, the market research, the relationships, the market development. 

So why did I pick exporting vegetables to China as a topic?

Well, one of the things that has become  apparent to me, and I think it was just demonstrated to you all by the last presentation, was the discussion around the importance of export markets to industry more generally.

I notice that we’ve got the supermarkets here, as part of the deal today, and it is good to see them. But one of the things that came through to me in the food processing inquiry was that having alternative markets, having options for your markets, was absolutely vital.

We had experts from Australia and also from overseas tell us about the importance of market options. And so that led me to look at what the market options for a vegetable industry were here in Australia.

And I’ve been following the trade figures for a considerable period of time.

ABARES each quarter publishes trade figures for our exports and our imports and where the markets are, where the markets are growing and where the trends are moving to.

So, when you look at the numbers, it was more than evident to me that China had to be part of the equation.

Last year the opportunity came up to grab a spot on a delegation to go to China and set some of the  agenda for that delegation.

One of the things we pushed really hard for was to talk about vegetable exports, and food exports and food security into China.

It was a difficult conversation, because when we wanted to talk about food security in China, they sent a representative to talk to us about food safety.

That is how they see food security into their country - it is about food safety.

And that leads again to one of the real features of what we provide out of Australia.

We provide a high quality, safe food product.

I had that demonstrated to me very, very graphically while we were there.

We were talking to a young mum who runs a very big business, something of the scale of David Jones, in a small provincial south-western city in China called Kunming.

"Small provincial" means seven million people.

But she was buying Bellamy’s baby food from Australia for her toddler because she knew it was safe. And she was prepared to pay the premium for that food because she knew it was safe.

We have heard about the melamine stories, we have heard about Asian demand for baby formula stripping supermarket shelves here in Australia last summer because they are looking for a safe supply of food.

Now there has been a lot of rhetoric, a lot of rhetoric, about Australia being the food bowl for Asia. I’m not going to go down that track, because as you just saw in the MLA presentation, those numbers just don’t stack up. You are talking about a population in China alone of 1.2 billion people.  When we talk about what our capacity is to enter into that market, at current population levels Australian farmers can supply enough food for Australia and less than 1% of the broader Asian population.

If food production can be doubled by 2050, and that is not unrealistic, Australia will be able to feed the projected population of Australia and less than 1.3% of the Asian population.

So we are never going to be the food bowl of Asia. But, as MLA has done, the opportunity is to identify niche markets into that huge market in Asia.

So when we look National Food Plan that was released last weekend the work around investigating markets, looking at market opportunities, looking at supply chains and developing supply chains, the brand ID work, all of those things are really very important parts of what we ought be doing.

The food processing inquiry found the same thing. The NFF’s blueprint found the same thing.

The National Food Plan found the same thing. And our intern Tegan Bensley’s report reinforces that yet again.

So, all  important opportunities and when you look at the actual numbers around what’s been happening with the food supply in the region and look at the growth in those markets, there is one market that stands out yet again, and that’s China.

We hear a lot about the food imports that come to Australia from China and that is part of the local campaign about buying Australian, and I understand that and that is important.

But food imports from China to Australia have grown by about $300 million since 2006-2007. So in 2006-07 they were $536 million.

In 2011-12 they were $841 million. But that’s only half the equation. If you look at the other side of it, that’s where the opportunity is. In 2006-07 food exports to China from Australia were $664 million.

In 2011-12 they were $2.174 billion. They have over trebled in that period of time. That gives an indication of what the market opportunities are. And that number stands out amongst all of the other numbers in the report that comes out quarterly from ABARES.

If you look at the United Kingdom, for example, they have gone from $1.2 billion, our exports to them, down to $614 million. So where do we focus our effort? Where do we put the research? Where do we develop the relationships? It’s quite obvious. Hong Kong has gone from $827 million to over a $1  billion.

Indonesia $1.5 billion to 2.2, nearly $2.3 billion. Those near neighbours that are looking for a safe, reliable source of food, where we can target specific markets.

That is the role I think that we need to look at, having somewhere else to go where if you don’t think you are getting the terms and conditions that you think you deserve, you need an alternative market.

So in that context what is the role of Government? Now we’ve heard lot recently about Free Trade Agreements with China, with Korea, South Korea and Japan, and the role of Government in my view is to ensure those market access issues are dealt with.

At the launch of the blueprint, when the NFF were asked what was the first priority if a Government could do something for them, their response was get the FTA with South Korea signed.

We are already starting to suffer a considerable disadvantage on price with our beef competitors into South Korea because the US has a free trade agreement and we don’t.

And the same thing occurs in China where New Zealand has negotiated a Free Trade Agreement and they have that 15% advantage over us on price and they are also a quality supplier of product. So we are in direct competition. They are the one country that is in direct competition with us into that market. Like for like. And we are already seeing the effects of them having a Free Trade Agreement and us not.

And it is not so much in vegetables, but it’s in seafood. Where seafood out of Australia is already being shipped via New Zealand to take advantage of the tariff advantage. And considerable competition for high-value products like lobsters which are $75 to $95 per kilo – a 15% advantage in those sorts of markets is quite significant.

It’s not going to be easy. There is a lot of work that has to be done. But it has to be one of the opportunities.

All of those south eastern Asian nations have to be opportunities for us.

You can see the growth in those markets. You can see where the opportunities lie.

And when it comes to having those alternative markets to put your products into, the opportunity to have a premium product and with the huge numbers of people who are prepared to pay a premium. And that’s one of the things that Tegan found in her report.

 An estimated 83% of Chinese middle class consumers are willing to pay more for safe food products. Let’s take that marketing advantage that we have.

Let’s take that understanding that already exists in that market about the safety and the quality of our food, and let’s leverage off that so that we can turn around the very difficult circumstances that we are in here in Australia with our vegetable industry, and let’s make that part of the path and see if we can duplicate what we’ve done in the lamb industry.

I mean those numbers were quite profound. The turnaround in that industry by developing, doing the research, understanding the market, developing the supply chains and the relationships, and getting  into those markets.

I’m aware the major supermarkets are already looking at virtual type supermarkets  into Hong Kong. I’ve spoken to people who won’t buy poultry in Hong Kong because of the current bird  flu circumstance.

So what opportunity does that create for the poultry industry in Australia if there is a supply chain?

Because we have a reputation for a high quality, safe food product. We have certification systems. We have all of the precursors that you need and so it then comes back to the role of Government to develop those country-to-country relationships.

And in respect of the market access issues, in my view, what’s happened too much of late is that Government has been out in front and there hasn’t been enough of a partnership with industry alongside them to help to negotiate those things.

It is vital to have that solid industry knowledge, partnership and relationship and walk into the markets together so the markets can understand that you as an industry come with the imprimatur of government, and the government has an understanding of what the industry needs are as part of the negotiations so that we can get it right.

So revitalising some of the older-style campaigns, like a "Supermarket to Asia" type of campaign, is part of our marketing is important.

 But, as I’ve said, we must leverage off the high-quality, high-value markets and target into those markets that will provide that premium and provide that opportunity to pick up a bit of cream. And make sure that the continued investment in research and development, which we’ve done quite successfully since the R&D Corporation model’s been put in place is continued.

People ask me about whether I see a positive future for agriculture in Australia. And when I’m standing in front of a group of industry leaders like we have here, I can comfortably say yes, because I know that there are really, really innovative farmers out there who are looking for the opportunities and be prepared to work.

 In my view there are huge opportunities for this industry into that larger Asian market and I would really look forward to assisting industry to make some real leaps and bounds into the future.

Senator The Hon Richard Colbeck



Business & Investment Opportunities Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.